Most ICT traders know the weekly profile and apply the daily bias. Far fewer use the monthly profile — and yet it is the single timeframe that determines whether their weekly and daily analysis is running with or against the highest-timeframe institutional flow. Ignoring the monthly profile does not make it irrelevant. It makes the trades you take invisible countertrend trades that you do not know are countertrend.
The monthly profile provides two things that no lower timeframe can: the broadest context for where price is relative to value (the monthly premium/discount zones), and the identification of multi-month liquidity pools that the algorithm is targeting over a scale of weeks rather than days. Once these are marked, every weekly and daily decision is filtered through a lens that most ICT traders never apply.
What the ICT Monthly Profile Is
The ICT monthly profile consists of five elements marked on the monthly chart at the beginning of each new month:
Monthly Range High: The highest price reached during the prior month's candle. This is the BSL pool above which buy stops cluster from short sellers who entered during the month and placed protective stops above the monthly high.
Monthly Range Low: The lowest price reached during the prior month's candle. Below this level, sell stops cluster from long traders.
Monthly Equilibrium (EQ): The 50% midpoint of the prior month's range. Calculated as (Monthly High + Monthly Low) / 2. This is the monthly fair value line — the price at which the prior month was in balance. Above EQ = monthly premium. Below EQ = monthly discount.
Monthly Premium Zone: The upper half of the monthly range (between EQ and Monthly High). When current price is in the monthly premium, the monthly context favours short entries. Bearish trades from premium have the monthly timeframe behind them. Bullish trades from premium are countertrend at the monthly scale.
Monthly Discount Zone: The lower half of the monthly range (between Monthly Low and EQ). When current price is in monthly discount, the monthly context favours long entries.
These five levels are marked once per month and do not change until the next month begins. They serve as the background context for all weekly profile analysis, daily bias decisions, and intraday entries throughout the entire month.
Determining the Monthly Bias
Monthly bias determination follows the same premium/discount logic as every other timeframe in the ICT framework, applied to the monthly range. The question is identical to the daily and weekly bias question, just asked at the monthly scale: is price in premium (above EQ, expect lower) or discount (below EQ, expect higher)?
Step 1 — Mark the prior month's range: On the first trading day of each new month, mark the prior month's high and low. These become the monthly reference levels for the current month.
Step 2 — Calculate the monthly EQ: (Prior month high + Prior month low) / 2. Mark this as a horizontal line. This is the monthly fair value midpoint.
Step 3 — Identify current price position: Is today's price above or below the monthly EQ? Above = monthly premium = bearish bias for the month. Below = monthly discount = bullish bias.
Step 4 — Identify the monthly draw on liquidity: Which level is the algorithm most likely targeting this month? Look for unswept monthly equal highs (if bearish, these may be the BSL being targeted before reversal) or unswept monthly equal lows (if bullish, these may be SSL targets). The monthly draw on liquidity is typically 2–4 months away on the chart — a prior month's high or low that has been re-tested without a sweep.
The monthly bias does not change mid-month. Once it is set on the 1st of the month, it remains the primary monthly context for all 4 weeks of that month. A bullish weekly within a monthly premium context is a countertrend weekly trade — lower probability, smaller size.
The Bias Cascade — Monthly → Weekly → Daily → Session
The most important concept in monthly profile analysis is not the monthly levels themselves — it is how they cascade into every lower timeframe decision. ICT analysis is hierarchical: the monthly provides the context for the weekly, the weekly provides the context for the daily, the daily provides the context for the session.
The Monthly AMD Cycle — Which Week Is the Judas
The AMD cycle operates at every scale simultaneously. At the monthly scale, the AMD sequence spans four weeks: the first 1–2 weeks are accumulation, the second or third week fires the monthly Judas (a false directional move), and the third and fourth weeks distribute to the monthly target.
Identifying which week of the month is the monthly Judas is the highest-value insight the monthly profile provides. In a bearish month (price in monthly premium), the monthly Judas is the week that pushes higher — appearing bullish — before the month's bearish delivery resumes. This is often the Week 2 or Week 3 Judas week.
The practical implication: when you identify the monthly Judas week in real time, every intraday sell setup during that week has a double layer of institutional backing. The weekly AMD is firing its distribution leg. The monthly AMD is also firing its distribution leg. The two timeframes are delivering in the same direction simultaneously — this is the environment that produces the largest moves and the cleanest entry-to-target sequences in the ICT framework.
How to identify the monthly Judas in real time: it typically occurs in the week that shows a clean push against the monthly bias direction (bullish expansion in a bearish month) followed by a reversal and strong continuation in the monthly bias direction. The weekly close of the Judas week is a strong tell — if Week 2 produces a bullish weekly candle in a bearish month but Week 3 opens with a bearish gap or immediate bearish delivery, Week 2 was the monthly Judas.
First of Month Analysis — The Monthly Checklist
Monthly profile analysis takes 10–15 minutes and is performed once per month, on the first trading day of each new month. This is the monthly equivalent of the Sunday weekly preparation — the session that sets the context for every trade over the next four weeks.
Monthly Equal Highs and Lows — Multi-Month Targets
Monthly equal highs and lows are the most significant liquidity pools in the entire ICT framework. They represent months of accumulated stop orders — every trader who shorted above a prior monthly high and placed protective stops above it, and every trader who bought below a prior monthly low. The density of stops at these levels is proportional to how long they have been unswept and how clearly visible they are.
On NQ, prominent monthly equal highs from 2–4 months back that have not been swept are primary targets for bearish monthly deliveries. When the monthly bias turns bearish and an unswept monthly equal high sits above current price, the algorithm will frequently drive price to that level — sweeping the multi-month BSL — before reversing for the major monthly bearish delivery. This is the monthly Judas at its largest scale: the sweep of the monthly equal high is the monthly manipulation, and the subsequent reversal is the monthly distribution.
The practical implication for intraday trading: when you know a monthly equal high or low is within reach this month, every daily trade that moves in the direction of that level has the monthly delivery behind it. The intraday AMD, the weekly AMD, and the monthly AMD are all pointing at the same target. These multi-timeframe alignment moments are where the ICT framework produces its largest moves and most sustained delivery sequences.
When Monthly and Weekly Conflict
The most difficult situation in multi-timeframe ICT analysis is when the monthly and weekly bias point in different directions. This happens at monthly bias transitions — when price is crossing the monthly EQ — and during the monthly Judas week, when a temporary counter-monthly move occurs.
Price crossing the monthly EQ: If price was below the monthly EQ (monthly bullish) last month and has risen above the monthly EQ this month, the monthly bias has transitioned from bullish to bearish. During this transition period — typically the first week of the new month — the monthly bias is ambiguous. Reduce size and focus on higher-timeframe alignment. Do not take aggressive directional positions when price is within 2–3% of the monthly EQ.
Monthly Judas week (counter-monthly move): During the monthly Judas week, the weekly profile may show a bullish weekly (pushing against the monthly bearish bias). This apparent conflict is not a real conflict — it is the monthly manipulation phase. The weekly bullish move is the monthly Judas, not a genuine monthly bias reversal. The tell: if the monthly bias is bearish and the weekly push is approaching the monthly high or monthly equal highs, it is highly likely a monthly Judas sweep rather than a genuine reversal. Stay in the monthly bearish direction after the weekly Judas completes.
Genuine monthly bias change: A genuine monthly bias change requires a monthly candle that closes decisively beyond the prior month's range — creating a monthly MSS on the monthly chart. This is a rare event and represents a major structural shift. When it occurs, update the monthly profile immediately and reassess the monthly draw on liquidity. A genuine monthly MSS is the most powerful single signal in the ICT framework — it means the algorithm's highest-timeframe delivery has shifted direction.
Full Month Walkthrough — NQ Bearish Month
First of month analysis (Monday 9:00 AM ET): Prior month: High 22,140, Low 21,380. Range: 760 points. Monthly EQ: (22,140 + 21,380) / 2 = 21,760. Current price: 21,892 — above monthly EQ. Monthly bias: BEARISH. Monthly premium zone: 21,760–22,140. Current price is 132 points into premium.
Monthly draw on liquidity: Looking back 3 months on the monthly chart: equal lows at 20,940 formed in months 2 and 4 ago — two monthly candles whose lows touched within 10 points of each other. This is the primary monthly target. Distance from current price: 952 points. This is the month's ultimate T2.
Week 1 (Accumulation): Price oscillates between 21,820 and 21,960 — building the weekly range. No major weekly directional move. Daily trades are small, bias switching. This is weekly accumulation within the monthly premium. Mark the weekly high and low as they form.
Week 2 (Monthly Judas fires): Monday of Week 2: NQ pushes to 22,080 — within 60 points of the monthly high. BSL above 22,000 (round number) is swept. Monday closes at 21,880 — back below 22,000. Monthly Judas wick confirmed. Tuesday: monthly MSS fires as the 1M swing low at 21,810 from prior week breaks on the 4H chart. This is a 4H MSS — the monthly scale confirmation. 1st Presented FVG on the daily chart: 21,870–21,960. 50% CE: 21,915. Limit short placed at 21,915.
Week 2 Wednesday — entry fills: During the Silver Bullet window, NQ retraces to 21,918 on the daily pullback. Short fills at 21,915. Stop: above monthly Judas wick at 22,080 — buffer to 22,090. Distance: 175 points.
Week 3 — T1 hit: Distribution accelerates through monthly EQ at 21,760. Prior month low at 21,380 (T1 — weekly IRL) hit Thursday Week 3. Close 50% at 21,380. Move stop to BE at 21,915.
Week 4 — T2 hit: Monthly equal lows at 20,940 hit Wednesday Week 4. Close remaining 50% at 20,940.
Common Monthly Profile Mistakes
Not doing monthly profile analysis at all. The most common mistake is the simplest: most ICT traders start their analysis at the weekly chart and never open the monthly. The result is trading without the broadest context. A bearish intraday trade on a day where the weekly is bearish but the monthly is bullish (price in monthly discount) is a two-timeframe-against-one setup. The monthly discount is the framework saying "the algorithm is delivering higher at the monthly scale" — and that context is completely invisible to traders who never look at the monthly chart.
Using the current month's range instead of the prior month's range. The monthly EQ is calculated from the prior month's completed range — not the current month's evolving range. Using the current month's developing high and low to calculate EQ produces a level that changes every day as the month progresses, which eliminates its usefulness as a fixed reference. Mark the prior month's range on the 1st of the month and do not update it until the next month begins.
Treating monthly Judas moves as genuine bias changes. The monthly Judas week pushes against the monthly bias — and the weekly candle for that week may close as a bullish weekly within a bearish month. Many traders see this and conclude the monthly bias has flipped. It has not. A genuine monthly bias change requires a monthly candle closing beyond the prior month's range extreme. A weekly push within the month that retraces by month-end is the monthly Judas, not a reversal. Hold the monthly bias through the Judas week unless a genuine monthly MSS occurs.
Ignoring the monthly draw on liquidity in stop and target calculations. The monthly equal highs and lows that represent the month's draw on liquidity should influence every trade's T2 level. When T2 is set at the weekly ERL but the monthly draw is substantially beyond it (another 500+ NQ points lower on a bearish month), the question is whether to hold 25% of the position beyond the weekly T2 for the monthly target. Many profitable trades are cut far too early because the trader targets only the weekly ERL without recognising that the monthly delivery has much further to go.